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This estimate is based on our September 2020 assessment and has not been updated.Ģ | In the term NDC, we also include the “Intended” Nationally Determined Contributions of governments who have not yet ratified the Paris Agreement.
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The higher 2020 levels lead to somewhat higher 2025 levels, somewhat lower 2030 levels and substantially lower 2050 levels to compensate for the higher emissions in the period 2010–2025, compared to the previous CAT benchmark pathways for both 1.5☌ and 2☌.ġ | 2.9☌ is the median of the low and high ends of current policy projections (2.1 to 3.9☌). The new pathways are based on so-called “delayed-action” 2020 scenarios, which have higher emissions levels in 2020 and do not show a 2020 emissions gap. Previous CAT pathways were based on immediate-action 2010 scenarios, which start strong global mitigation action in 2010 and show an emissions gap in 2020 compared to Cancun targets and projected actual emissions. The final IPCC SR1.5 pathway category of “higher-2☌” is not included at all, as these pathways hold warming below 2☌ throughout the 21st century with a probability less than 66% (50–66%).
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As above, these pathways are filtered to exclude those that exceed the BECCS and AFOLU sustainability limits identified in the IPCC SR1.5. The central “1.5☌ compatible“ benchmark is defined as the median of pathways that limit global warming to 1.5☌, or below, throughout the 21st century with no or limited (66%) probability over the 21st century, excluding pathways that qualify as “1.5☌ compatible” as explained above. For CAT’s “1.5☌ compatible” and “2☌ compatible” benchmark pathways, the new sets of mitigation pathways have been filtered to exclude those that do not meet these CDR limits.įor consistency with IPCC SR1.5, and to show the most robust results across models, the new CAT benchmark pathways follow the approach to derive median and inter-quartile ranges (50% ranges) extracted from the IPCC SR1.5 database for total global greenhouse gas emissions (for those pathways that meet the CDR criteria above). The IPCC SR1.5 assesses pathways that limit global warming to 1.5☌ with no or limited overshoot, which the CAT uses to define “Paris Agreement compatible”-or “1.5☌ compatible“-pathways.īased on sustainability and economic constraints on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), the IPCC SR1.5 identified limits to BECCS (below 5 GtCO 2e/yr globally in 2050) and AFOLU (below 3.6 GtCO 2/yr sequestration globally in 2050). Prompted by the publication of the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 ☌ (IPCC SR1.5) (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018), which contained a large new set of mitigation pathways-in particular for 1.5☌-the CAT has updated its “benchmark” pathways for 1.5☌ and 2☌. The CAT also presents results in relation to a pathway consistent with limiting warming to 2☌ with likely (≥66%) probability, for comparative purposes. The CAT evaluates progress towards this global goal by quantifying the aggregate effects of current policies and the pledges and targets put forward by countries, and compares these with the emissions levels consistent over time with the 1.5☌ limit using the MAGICC climate model (see Methodology section). Limiting warming to 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels means that the emissions of greenhouse gases need to be reduced rapidly in the coming years and decades, and brought to zero around mid-century. Furthermore, both the current policy and pledge trajectories lie well above emissions pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal. There remains a substantial gap between what governments have promised to do and the total level of actions they have undertaken to date.
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See our May 2021 briefing for full details. Under the optimistic assumption that governments will achieve these targets, the median warming estimate is 2.0☌, or in probabilistic terms, likely below 2.2☌. We also ran an “optimistic” targets scenario analysing the effect of net zero emissions targets of 131 countries that are adopted or under discussion. Warming estimates have fallen by 0.2☌ compared to our previous assessment due to the NDCs announced or submitted since last September. The unconditional pledges and targets that governments have made, including NDCs and some long-term or net-zero targets as of April 2021, 2 would limit warming to about 2.4☌ above pre-industrial levels, 3 or in probabilistic terms, likely (66% or greater chance) limit warming below 2.6☌. Current policies presently in place around the world are projected to result in about 2.9☌ 1 warming above pre-industrial levels.